With the right framework, BloombergNEF analysts think the controversial carbon offset market could excel, potentially hitting a trillion dollars in 15 years.

If 2023 results are any indication, the arrow is pointed up. The market rebounded from a down year in 2022 despite “scandals and accusations of fraudulent projects,” Bloomberg reports.

Companies set a record by buying and retiring 164 million credits last year, up 6%, and recent federal guidelines reported on by the New York Times could provide much-needed confidence in the system.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology describes the credit market as tradable “rights or certificates” that can be bought by a company to fund projects that reduce air pollution. In return, the company doesn’t have to clean up its operation since it is offsetting an equal amount of pollution through the credit market. Reforestation and investing in renewable energy are examples of clean-energy investments that can earn credits, all per MIT’s description.

The system has been criticized for shielding so-called greenwashing. That happens when companies claim to be making planet-friendly investments but, in truth, are not fulfilling the promises. A story last year from the Guardian noted that 39 of 50 offsets it studied were likely “junk.”

“We cannot afford to waste any more time on false solutions,” Anuradha Mittal, director of the Oakland Institute, told the newspaper. The institute is a policy think tank focused on social, economic, and environmental issues.

Watch now: Could this concentrate replace all the toxic cleaning chemicals in your home?

Shell, a company that has been criticized for disingenuous offsets, is among a group of companies that BloombergNEF notes retired a deluge of credits in December to put the market ahead.

In a report from last year, BloombergNEF sustainability research lead Kyle Harrison characterized figuring out how to effectively standardize the system as the carbon offset market’s “space race.”

“Buyers need transparency, clear definitions around quality, and easy access to premium supply,” he said.

Suggestions in the article mostly deal with better defining what types of projects qualify, from preventing deforestation to capturing and safely storing air pollution. Part of the solution could be allowing only specific projects, like direct air capture, to qualify.

The Times reports that the U.S. government prefers that companies clean up pollution in “their own supply chains” before buying credits.

At its best, the market could be a useful tool for companies to help reduce overall planet-warming air pollution. NASA has linked the fumes to an increased risk of severe weather, and others have linked them to a growing list of health problems. The recent government guidelines announced by President Joe Biden are intended to strengthen faith in the system through public disclosure of results and other vetting processes.

Anyone can play the role of watchdog by staying educated on how companies are sticking to their climate-related promises. Supporting brands that do can encourage more businesses to follow suit.

In the end, reaching $1 trillion in carbon offsets only matters if the projects actually work.

“Voluntary carbon markets can help unlock the power of private markets to reduce emissions, but that can only happen if we address significant existing challenges,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in the Times story.

Join our free newsletter for cool news and actionable info that makes it easy to help yourself while helping the planet.